May 22-24, 2017, Paris.
In a wide range of human domains – from reaction to climate change, energy policy, regulations of new technologies, economic policy – decisions are dogged by extreme uncertainties. How should one decide in the face of such uncertainties? How should they be represented, and indeed measured, to best aid informed decision making?
These questions are relevant in many different domains, but so far they have dealt with these uncertainties in relative isolation. There is little interaction among risk analysts’ methods, engineers’ techniques, decision theorists’ models, philosopher’s analyses, not to mention the relevant domains of statistics, environmental economics, or the practice concerning uncertainty representation and communication in climate science or the nuclear energy sector. The aim of this workshop is to bring together practitioners and researchers from some of these fields around the two central questions posed above.
The hope will be that by fostering the discussion and confrontation of results, methods and practices, this workshop will contribute to a better understanding of the affinities and divergences among the approaches dominant in different sectors, and ultimately to the development of more unified and robust approach to the challenges posed by uncertainty.
This page contains recordings of the talks and discussions that took place at this workshop.
Monday 22 May, Morning Session
Charles Manski (Economics, Northwestern University)
Robert Lempert (Pardee RAND Graduate School)
Monday 22 May, Afternoon Session
Tuesday 23 May, Morning Session
Anthony O’Hagan (Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield
Katharine Mach (Earth System Science, Stanford University)
David Stainforth (Grantham Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, LSE)
Tuesday 23 May, Afternoon Session
Yakov Ben-Haim (Mechanical Engineering, Technion)
Casey Helgeson (GREGHEC, CNRS-HEC Paris)
Christian Gollier (Economics, Toulouse School of Economics)
WEDNESDAY, MAY 24
08:30 — 09:00 coffee
Morning session chair: Yakov Ben-Haim (Technion)
09:00 — 09:50 Richard Bradley (Philosophy, LSE)
Decision Making under Model Uncertainty
09:50 — 10:40 Itzhak Gilboa (Economics and Decision Sciences, HEC Paris & Tel-Aviv University)
Second-Order Induction, Precedents, and Divergence of Opinions
10:40 — 11:10 coffee
11:10 — 11:40 Morning Q&A
11:40 — 13:00 Round table on challenges for the future
Panelists: Richard Bradley, Itzhak Gilboa, Robert Lempert, Katharine Mach, Charles Manski
Workshop organised by GREGHEC (HEC Paris & CNRS), the DRI group of the IHPST (DEC-ENS Ulm, Paris 1, CNRS), and the LSE CPNSS with the support of the ANR project DUSUCA.
Preliminary Program and Abstracts:
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