Itzhak Gilboa

Economics and Decision Sciences

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Itzhak Gilboa is a Professor of Economics and Decision Sciences at HEC, Paris, and Professor at the Eitan Berglas School of Economics, Tel-Aviv University. He works in decision theory and other fields in economic theory such as game theory and social choice.  His main interest is in decision under uncertainty, focusing on the definition of probability, notions of rationality, non-Bayesian decision models, and related issues. He holds the AXA-HEC Chair for Decision Science.

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Craig Fox

Management and Psychology

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Craig Fox is the Harold Williams Chair and Professor of Management at the UCLA Anderson School of Management, professor of psychology at the UCLA College of Letters and Sciences and professor of medicine in the UCLA Geffen School. His research focuses on decision behavior, especially under conditions of risk and uncertainty. He co-founded the Behavioral Science & Policy Association.

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Robert Lempert

Decision support, Policy analysis

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Robert Lempert is a principal researcher at the RAND Corporation and Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition. His research focuses on risk management and decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty.   He is a convening lead author for Working Group II of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report, and the inaugural president of the Society for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty.

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Charles Manski

Economics

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Charles F. Manski is Board of Trustees Professor in Economics at Northwestern University since 1997. His research spans econometrics, judgment and decision, and analysis of public policy. He has served as Director of the Institute for Research on Poverty, Chair of the Board of Overseers of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and Chair of the National Research Council Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs.

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David Budescu

Psychology

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David Budescu is the Anne Anastasi Professor of Psychometrics and Quantitative Psychology at Fordham University.  His research is in the areas of human judgment, individual and group decision making under uncertainty and with incomplete and vague information, information aggregation and “Wisdom of Crowds”, statistics for the behavioral and social sciences, and applied psychometrics.

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Confidence as crucial for rational belief and decision

The standard, Bayesian account of rational belief and decision in terms of probability is often argued to be unable to cope properly with severe uncertainty, of the sort ubiquitous in some areas of policy making. Confidence in Beliefs and Rational Decision Making (to appear in the JUly 2019 issue of the journal Economics and Philosophy; pre-print available here) asks what should replace it as a guide for rational decision making. It provides the most comprehensive defense to date of an account of rational belief and decision that reserves a role for the decision maker’s confidence in beliefs (previously endorsed here and here). Beyond being able to cope with severe uncertainty, the account has strong normative credentials on the main fronts typically evoked as relevant for rational belief and decision. It fares particularly well in comparison to other prominent non-Bayesian models.